تاثیر کلان روندهای فناورانه بر توسعه دانشگاه‌ها در ایران؛ بررسی موردی آثار تحولات فناورانه بر تأمین مالی دانشگاه های دولتی

Purpose: Universities are affected by the effects of technological changes and such changes affect the key functions of the university such as development and management of knowledge and human resource training. For this reason, it is necessary to identify the mega trends affecting future universities from the perspective of technological developments and analyze their effect on the economy of higher education. Technological developments on universities have an impact on the future of higher education in Iran in different dimensions. In this article, according to the scope of the research, while identifying the mega technological trends affecting the future of universities in Iran, the effects of these mega trends on the financing of public universities were examined. Finally it is necessary to identify the mega technological trends affecting universities in Iran, to identify the impact of these technologies in the future of higher education in different sectors, and to make appropriate policies. Technologies undoubtedly play a huge role in education now and in the future at all levels, a fact that has been especially strongly reinforced by the situation of the Covid-19 pandemic. These technological developments create opportunities and challenges for universities, which must be responded to in a scientific and policy-making process. In this research, two key research questions have been answered: Question 1: What are the mega trends affecting the future of universities in Iran related to the development of new technologies in the field of education? Question 2: What are the effects of identified mega trends on public universities in Iran in the field of financing?
Methodology: A single case study methodology was used to carry out this research. The mentioned research is at the level of macro-policy making and is studied by public universities. In this research, based on the methodology of a case study through the study of literature, mega trends affecting the future of universities were identified from the perspective of technological developments. Then, based on previous studies, a series of evidence, events and statistics, as well as exploratory interviews with experts, the initial theoretical framework of the research, consisting of 15 mega trends, was presented. Next, the initial theoretical framework was verified using tools such as studying documents and previous studies, statistics and events, and interviewing 13 experts. The selection of experts was based on direct identification and the snowball method and continued until theoretical saturation was reached. Interviews with experts were coded and in the article some of the experts' points of view related to each mega trend are presented.  One of the main steps of research is research validation. Four features including construct validity, internal validity, external validity and reliability were validated in single case study in this research.
Findings: Based on previous studies, a series of evidences, events and statistics, as well as exploratory interviews, the initial theoretical framework of the research consisting of 3 sections and 15 mega trends was presented. In the following, the initial theoretical framework was examined based on the case study method and tools such as the study of previous documents and activities, statistics and events, and interviews with experts. Based on this, while revising the mentioned framework, the number of mega trends was reduced from 15 mega trends to 8 mega trends and 19 policy proposals were presented. The 8 mega trends presented in the final framework include mentoring, self-learning, interdisciplinary and skill-based training, blended learning, online and simulated laboratories, online tests, entering new sectors in education and global competition in attracting students. The results of the research show that the 8 mega trends caused by technological developments have a high effect on at least one method of financing in public universities, and it is necessary for policy makers, managers and researchers to understand the effects of these mega trends on the development of universities in Iran.
Research limitations: It is suggested to use quantitative and qualitative methods to expand the scope of research from public universities and the financing sector to all kinds of universities and other higher education sectors. Also, universities have various dimensions (such as technological infrastructures and educational methods) that are affected by technological mega trends and it is necessary to investigate in the future researches. The issue of the effects of new technologies such as artificial intelligence is one of the topics of future research from the technical and managerial perspectives in higher education. In the end, it is suggested that the results of the mentioned research should be examined in different public universities with different levels of ability, and the specific characteristics of the universities.
Practical implications: The results of this research can be used by policy makers, managers and researchers. Paying attention to multiple specializations in faculty members, employing lecturers from industry in universities, using new business models in public universities to realize continuous and short-term education, paying attention to new technologies such as artificial intelligence in teaching students, More use of self-learning methods, special attention to non-formal education, more serious attention to the needs of industry and society, allocation of funds by the government to equip classrooms with new educational technologies, changes in curricula based on flexibility and continuity, Creating new methods of online and virtual exams, creating virtual laboratories, paying attention to university marketing especially in attracting foreign students, using international infrastructure in the field of education and creating international consortia in holding training courses are among the practical suggestions of this research.
Originality/value: In this research, the main goal is to identify the mega trends of technology and examine the impact of mega trends on the future of universities in Iran. Of course, in this research, the focus is on public universities and the financing system in Iran. These technological developments are presented in the context of new technologies such as digital transformation and have serious effects on the activities and performance of the university in the future. The research results are useful and valuable for various stakeholders of higher education, including policy makers and administrators. Also, providing original data from interviews with experts also adds to the value of the research.