آینده پژوهی استراتژی شرکت های دانش بنیان با رویکرد سناریو نگاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی با اصالت

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان، هرمزگان، ایران.

2 نویسنده مسئول: استادیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان،هرمزگان،ایران

چکیده

توانایی تصور آنچه که احتمالاً اتفاق خواهد افتاد (آینده‌پژوهی) یکی از ویژگی‌های بسیار مهم شرکت‌های موفق می‌باشد. حال اگر این شرکت، شرکت دانش‌بنیان باشد که اساس رقابت و مزیت رقابتی آن‌ها بر مبنای دانش است بیشتر خواهد بود. ازاین‌رو در این پژوهش سعی شده است با آینده‌نگری مؤلفه‌های مزیت ساز رقابتی در شرکت‌های دانش‌بنیان، سناریوهای محتمل و درنتیجه استراتژی‌های مناسب برای این شرکت‌ها تدوین شود. این پژوهش ازنظر هدف کاربردی و ازنظر روش از نوع پیمایشی و در سطح اکتشافی است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش را 97 نفر از مدیران و خبرگان موجود در46 شرکت دانش‌بنیان مستقر در شهرک فناوری صنایع شیمیایی شیراز و هلدینگ دانش‌بنیان فتکو تشکیل دادند که با توجه به نوع و مراحل پژوهش ، تیم‌های 15 نفره ، 7 نفره و 6 نفره به‌صورت قضاوتی انتخاب شدند . در مرحله اول با بررسی ادبیات موضوع 4 دسته اصلی سیاسی- راهبردی، اقتصادی-مالی، اجتماعی – فرهنگی و فناوری انتخاب شد و سپس با استفاده مجدد از ادبیات موضوع و مصاحبه با خبرگان 30 مؤلفه شناسایی شد و آنگاه با استفاده از نظر تیم 15 نفره از خبرگان و به روش دلفی 26 مؤلفه مزیت ساز رقابتی نهایی شد. در مرحله دوم جهت تعیین تأثیرات متقابل مؤلفه‌ها، این مؤلفه‌ها وارد 2 پرسشنامه شد و یک تیم 7 نفره از خبرگان اقدام به تکمیل آن‌ها نمودند. یکی از این پرسشنامه‌ها جهت استفاده در تجزیه‌وتحلیل MICMAC و دیگری جهت استفاده در نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد تدوین شد. وجود سناریو در خروجی نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد و پایایی 95% پرسشنامه MICMAC اعتبار و سازگاری درونی این 2 پرسشنامه و داده‌های مربوطه را تضمین می‌کند. نتایج نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد 8 سناریوی قابل‌قبول (قوی) را ارائه داد که در این میان 3 سناریوی خوش‌بینانه، بدبینانه و محتمل‌ترین مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار گرفت. با دسته‌بندی مؤلفه‌های مزیت ساز در 4 دسته سیاسی/راهبردی، اقتصادی/مالی، اجتماعی/ فرهنگی و فناوری، نتایج سناریوهای سه‌گانه نیز در این دسته‌بندی ارائه شد. در مرحله آخر نیز از تیم 6 نفره ای برای تدوین اقدامات و سیاست‌های لازم استفاده شد که این تیم درنهایت 12 اقدام برای سناریوی خوش‌بینانه، 9 اقدام برای سناریوی محتمل و 4 اقدام برای سناریوی بدبینانه پیشنهاد دادند. درمجموع می‌توان گفت که در شرکت های دانش بنیان گسیل توان مدیریت دانش به سمت چهار مقوله تولید بیشتر، توسعه بازار، نتیجه گرایی پروژه و کیفیت بیشتر می تواند سناریوی مطلوب برای رسیدن به حداکثر استفاده از امکانات و فرصت ها را فراهم آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Futures studies of the strategy of knowledge-based companies with a scenario approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Akbarpoor 1
  • Ali tizroo 2
1 Master's student in Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Hormozgan University, Hormozgan, Iran.
2 Corresponding author: Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Hormozgan University, Hormozgan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The ability to imagine what will probably happen is one of the most important characteristics of successful companies, and it will be even more so if this company is a knowledge-based company whose basis of competition and competitive advantage is based on knowledge. Therefore, in this research, an attempt has been made to formulate possible scenarios and, as a result, appropriate strategies for these companies, by looking ahead to competitive advantage components in knowledge-based companies. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method it is survey type and exploratory level. The statistical population of this research was made up of 97 managers and experts in 46 science-based companies located in Shiraz Chemical Industries Technology Town and Science-based Fatko Holding, which according to the type and stages of the research, groups of 15 people, 7 people and 6 people were selected judiciously. Investigating the literature of the first stage, 4 main political, strategic, economic, financial, socio-cultural and technological categories were selected by reviewing the subject literature, and then 30 components were identified by re-using the subject literature and interviewing experts, and then using the opinion of a group of 15 experts. And by Delphi method, 26 competitive advantage components were finalized. In the second stage, in order to determine the mutual effects of the components, these components were included in 2 questionnaires and a group of 7 experts completed them. One of these questionnaires was developed for use in MICMAC analysis and the other for use in Scenario Wizard software. The existence of the scenario in the output of the scenario wizard software and the reliability of 95% of the MICMAC questionnaire guarantees the validity and internal consistency of these 2 questionnaires and the relevant data.The results of the scenario wizard software provided 8 acceptable (strong) scenarios, among which 3 optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios were analyzed. By categorizing the advantageous components into 4 political/strategic, economic/financial, social/cultural and technological categories, the results of the three scenarios were also presented in this category. In the last stage, a 6-person group was used to formulate the necessary measures and policies, and this group finally suggested 12 measures for the optimistic scenario, 9 measures for the probable scenario, and 4 measures for the pessimistic scenario. In general, it can be said that in knowledge-based companies, the distribution of knowledge management power towards the four categories of more production, market development, project result orientation and more quality can provide a favorable scenario to achieve the maximum use of facilities and opportunities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures studies
  • knowledge management
  • knowledge-based companies
  • Scenario Planning
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دوره 5، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 18
شماره پیاپی18، فصلنامه پاییز
مهر 1401
صفحه 69-110
  • تاریخ دریافت: 18 تیر 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 24 مرداد 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 24 مرداد 1401
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 مهر 1401