نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی با اصالت
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Purpose: Early identification of changes and the interpretation of environmental signals under uncertainty play a vital role in strategic decision-making. However, there is a clear lack of an integrated framework linking foresight, knowledge management, and strategic action. This study aims to design a paradigm model for the “Future-foresight Knowledge Radar” (FKR).
Methodology: This research employed a qualitative approach using Grounded Theory. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 18 academic and organizational experts selected via theoretical sampling, with theoretical saturation achieved at the 15th interview. Data analysis was conducted in three stages using MAXQDA 2024 software, and reliability was confirmed using Cohen’s Kappa coefficient.
Results: Findings reveal a paradigm model developed across six dimensions, identifying the “Future-foresight Knowledge Radar” as the core phenomenon. The model’s strategies include signal monitoring, foresight interpretation, prioritization, action conversion, and feedback-loop memorization. Outcomes are explained at two levels: first-order (cognitive/processual) consequences—such as enhanced foresight sense-making and evidence-based decision-making—and second-order (institutional/strategic) consequences—such as organizational resilience and the mitigation of strategic amnesia—the realization of which is contingent upon the institutionalization of the first layer and adaptation to intervening conditions.
Discussion: Results indicate that the FKR acts as a bridge between environmental scanning and the creation of dynamic capabilities, accelerating the transformation of insights into strategic actions. The proposed framework provides a conceptual foundation for improving decision-making.
Conclusion: The Given the exploratory nature of this study, quantitative testing and structural equation modeling in various industries are recommended for future research.
کلیدواژهها English